The Ironman™ World Championships is over for 2017, and we have seen a changing of the guard in the men’s race, with Patrick Lange, Lionel Sanders and David McNamee taking over the podium positions. Not to forget our own local club member Cameron Wurf and his record breaking bike split of 4:12:54.

I thought I would take this opportunity and have a look at the times and modelling from our race prediction article utilising the resources from www.trirating.com and www.bestbikesplit.com, and see how their predictive modelling stacked up.

One point of interest, Lionel Sanders mentioned in one of the many interviews that he has done since this break through performance, was that after he let the break happen on the descent from Hawi, where Wurf and Kienle escaped off the front, Sanders had to put in an effort of 350 watts for ten minutes as he climbed back into Kawaihae. This also coincided with the point where he dropped Frodeno as he bridged back to the front of the race.

 

 

Lionel Sanders 2nd Overall

 

Weight (kg) 73
FTP (W) 400
FTP W/kg 5.52
Actual Time 4:14:19
Predicted Time 2017 TriRating 4:25:37
Predicted Time 2017 Best Bike Split 4:24:25
Bike Split 2014
Bike Split 2015 4:35:17
Bike Split 2016 4:26:35
Predicted Data for 2017
  Best Bike Split to achieve TriRating Actual
Avg. Speed (km/h) 40.8 40.624 42.304
Avg. Power 303.68 300.7 323.66
Normalized Power 308.23 305.66 329.07
Variability Index 1.01 1.02 1.02
Intensity Factor 0.77 0.76 0.8
Training Stress Score 261 258 274
Watts/Kg 4.18 4.14 4.46
Avg. Yaw 4.78 4.81° 3.99
Avg. CdA 0.2438 0.2438 0.2443

 

Sebastian Kienle 4th Overall

 

Weight (kg) 73
FTP (W) 383
FTP W/kg 5.24
Actual Time 4:14:57
Predicted Time 2017 TriRating 4:19:41
Predicted Time 2017 Best Bike Split 4:23:48
Bike Split 2014 4:20:46
Bike Split 2015 4:25:53
Bike Split 2016 4:23:55
Predicted Data for 2017
  Best Bike Split to achieve TriRating Actual
Avg. Speed (km/h) 40.896 41.584 42.416
Avg. Power 282.28 293.35 307.17
Normalized Power 287.16 298.82 312.91
Variability Index 1.02 1.02 1.02
Intensity Factor 0.75 0.78 0.81
Training Stress Score 246 261 280
Watts/Kg 3.87 4.02 4.21
Avg. Yaw 4.73 4.64 4.54
Avg. CdA 0.2268 0.2268 0.2268

 

 

Ben Hoffman 9th Overall

 

Weight (kg) 73
FTP (W) 378
FTP W/kg 5.21
Actual Time 4:22:00
Predicted Time 2017 TriRating 4:27:32
Predicted Time 2017 Best Bike Split 4:26:19
Bike Split 2014 4:32:20
Bike Split 2015 4:28:51
Bike Split 2016 4:28:06
Predicted Data for 2017
  Best Bike Split to achieve TriRating Actual
Avg. Speed (km/h) 40.512 40.336 41.184
Avg. Power 259.02 256.49 269.14
Normalized Power 264.52 261.85 274.78
Variability Index 1.02 1.02 1.02
Intensity Factor 0.7 0.69 0.72
Training Stress Score 216 212 228
Watts/Kg 3.57 3.53 3.71
Avg. Yaw 3.79 3.81 3.72
Avg. CdA 0.2208 0.2208 0.2208

 

Tim O’Donnell 19th Overall

 

Weight (kg) 74
FTP (W) 359
FTP W/kg 4.82
Actual Time 4:25:10
Predicted Time 2017 TriRating 4:27:43
Predicted Time 2017 Best Bike Split 4:28:14
Bike Split 2014 4:37:02
Bike Split 2015 4:26:13
Bike Split 2016 4:29:10
Predicted Data for 2017
  Best Bike Split to achieve TriRating Actual
Avg. Speed (km/h) 40.224 40.384 40.72
Avg. Power 281.27 284.04 289.54
Normalized Power 287.14 289.41 295.02
Variability Index 1.02 1.02 1.02
Intensity Factor 0.8 0.8 0.82
Training Stress Score 285 288 297
Watts/Kg 3.78 3.82 3.89
Avg. Yaw 3.59 3.57° 3.54
Avg. CdA 0.2482 0.2482 0.2483

 

Jan Frodeno

 

Weight (kg) 75
FTP (W) 361
FTP W/kg 4.83
Actual Time 4:20:59
Predicted Time 2017 TriRating 4:25:03
Predicted Time 2017 Best Bike Split 4:25:56
Bike Split 2014 4:37:19
Bike Split 2015 4:27:27
Bike Split 2016 4:29:00
Predicted Data for 2017
  Best Bike Split to achieve TriRating ACTUAL
Avg. Speed (km/h) 40.576 40.752 41.424
Avg. Power 272.93 275.6 286.28
Normalized Power 278.31 281.19 292.09
Variability Index 1.02 1.02 1.02
Intensity Factor 0.77 0.78 0.81
Training Stress Score 264 269 286
Watts/Kg 3.65 3.68 3.83
Avg. Yaw 4.78 4.76 4.67
Avg. CdA 0.2234 0.2234 0.2234

 

If you want to check out the Best Bike Split or TriRating please go to their websites:

www.bestbikesplit.com

www.trirating.com

 

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