Ironman™ World Championships are on this weekend, streamed live via Redbull TV from Kona, so I thought I would have a bit of a look at some the statistics and race predictions that are floating around the old “Interweb”. Thorsten from www.trirating.com has published his Kona report and there have also been some interesting data published by best bike split www.bestbikesplit.com, and I thought it would be worth having a look at the analysis that these sites have undertaken.

The team at Best Bike Split, have published a series of data utilising their bike split modelling tool, predicting times for Jan Frodeno, Sebastian Kienle, Lionel Sanders, Ben Hoffman, Tim O’Donnell, Daniella Ryf, Heather Jackson and Sarah Piampiano. In this article we will have a look at each athlete, and compare the modelling from Best Bike Split, with TriRating and their previous results for the bike over the last three (3) years. Please note in the following analysis I have utilised the Best Bike Split modelling and adjusted for TriRating bike split prediction.

Jan Frodeno

Frodeno – Slowtwitch

Weight (kg) 75
FTP (W) 361
FTP W/kg 4.83
Predicted Time 2017 TriRating 4:25:03
Predicted Time 2017 Best Bike Split 4:25:56
Bike Split 2014 4:37:19
Bike Split 2015 4:27:27
Bike Split 2016 4:29:00
Predicted Data for 2017 Best Bike Split to achieve TriRating
Avg. Speed (km/h) 40.576 40.752
Avg. Power 272.93 275.6
Normalized Power 278.31 281.19
Variability Index 1.02 1.02
Intensity Factor 0.77 0.78
Training Stress Score 264 269
Watts/Kg 3.65 3.68
Avg. Yaw 4.78 4.76
Avg. CdA 0.2234 0.2234
  • The heaviest of all the athletes we are analysing at 75kg.
  • Bike split in 2014 was almost 12minutes slower than that predicted for 2017.
  • TriRating has predicted Jan to be 53 seconds quicker than Best Bike Split (2017).

Sebastian Kienle

Kienle – Tririg.com

http://www.tririg.com/articles/2014_10_Ironman_Hawaii_Race_Day/960/2014_10_Ironman_Hawaii_Race_Day_136.jpg

Weight (kg) 73
FTP (W) 383
FTP W/kg 5.24
Predicted Time 2017 TriRating 4:19:41
Predicted Time 2017 Best Bike Split 4:23:48
Bike Split 2014 4:20:46
Bike Split 2015 4:25:53
Bike Split 2016 4:23:55
Predicted Data for 2017 Best Bike Split to achieve TriRating
Avg. Speed (km/h) 40.896 41.584
Avg. Power 282.28 293.35
Normalized Power 287.16 298.82
Variability Index 1.02 1.02
Intensity Factor 0.75 0.78
Training Stress Score 246 261
Watts/Kg 3.87 4.02
Avg. Yaw 4.73 4.64
Avg. CdA 0.2268 0.2268
  • The second highest FTP of all the athletes we are analysing at 383 watts.
  • Bike split in 2014 was almost 12minutes slower than that predicted for 2017.
  • The largest discrepancy in the prediction from TriRating and Best Bike Split, 4 minutes and 7 seconds (2017).
  • TriRating have predicted for Kienle to have his fastest bike split in 2017, when compared to the previous three years.

 

Lionel Sanders

Sanders

 

Weight (kg) 73
FTP (W) 400
FTP W/kg 5.52
Predicted Time 2017 TriRating 4:25:37
Predicted Time 2017 Best Bike Split 4:24:25
Bike Split 2014
Bike Split 2015 4:35:17
Bike Split 2016 4:26:35
Predicted Data for 2017 Best Bike Split to achieve TriRating
Avg. Speed (km/h) 40.8 40.624
Avg. Power 303.68 300.7
Normalized Power 308.23 305.66
Variability Index 1.01 1.02
Intensity Factor 0.77 0.76
Training Stress Score 261 258
Watts/Kg 4.18 4.14
Avg. Yaw 4.78 4.81°
Avg. CdA 0.2438 0.2438
  • The highest FTP of all the athletes we are analysing at 400 watts, and corresponds with the highest watts per kg (5.52 w/kg).
  • Bike split in 2015 was over 10 minutes slower than that predicted for 2017.
  • The only athlete in the analysis with a predicted average watts for 2017 above 300.
  • Best Bike Split have predicted Sanders bike split to be 1 minute and 12 seconds faster than TriRatings.

 

Ben Hoffman

Hoffman – Slowtwitch

 

Weight (kg) 73
FTP (W) 378
FTP W/kg 5.21
Predicted Time 2017 TriRating 4:27:32
Predicted Time 2017 Best Bike Split 4:26:19
Bike Split 2014 4:32:20
Bike Split 2015 4:28:51
Bike Split 2016 4:28:06
Predicted Data for 2017 Best Bike Split to achieve TriRating
Avg. Speed (km/h) 40.512 40.336
Avg. Power 259.02 256.49
Normalized Power 264.52 261.85
Variability Index 1.02 1.02
Intensity Factor 0.7 0.69
Training Stress Score 216 212
Watts/Kg 3.57 3.53
Avg. Yaw 3.79 3.81
Avg. CdA 0.2208 0.2208
  • Hoffman has steadily dropped his Kona bike split from 2014, and both TriRatings and Best Bike Split have predicted this trend to continue.
  • Best Bike Split have predicted Hoffmans bike split to be 1 minute and 13 seconds faster than TriRatings.

 

Tim O’Donnell

O’Donnell – Slowtwitch

 

Weight (kg) 74
FTP (W) 359
FTP W/kg 4.82
Predicted Time 2017 TriRating 4:27:43
Predicted Time 2017 Best Bike Split 4:28:14
Bike Split 2014 4:37:02
Bike Split 2015 4:26:13
Bike Split 2016 4:29:10
Predicted Data for 2017 Best Bike Split to achieve TriRating
Avg. Speed (km/h) 40.224 40.384
Avg. Power 281.27 284.04
Normalized Power 287.14 289.41
Variability Index 1.02 1.02
Intensity Factor 0.8 0.8
Training Stress Score 285 288
Watts/Kg 3.78 3.82
Avg. Yaw 3.59 3.57°
Avg. CdA 0.2482 0.2482
  • The lowest FTP of all the male athletes we are analysing at 359 watts, and corresponds with the lowest watts per kg (4.82 w/kg).
  • Bike split in 2014 was over 10 minutes slower than that predicted for 2017.
  • TriRating have predicted O’Donnells bike split to be 31 seconds faster than Best Bike Split.

 

Daniella Ryf

Ryf – Slowtwitch

 

Weight (kg) 59
FTP (W) 309
FTP W/kg 5.24
Predicted Time 2017 TriRating 4:49:17
Predicted Time 2017 Best Bike Split 4:48:15
Bike Split 2014 4:54:33
Bike Split 2015 4:50:46
Bike Split 2016 4:52:26
Predicted Data for 2017 Best Bike Split to achieve TriRating
Avg. Speed (km/h) 37.44 37.28
Avg. Power 231.4 229.13
Normalized Power 234.8 232.86
Variability Index 1.01 1.02
Intensity Factor 0.76 0.75
Training Stress Score 277 272
Watts/Kg 3.92 3.89
Avg. Yaw 5.18 5.21°
Avg. CdA 0.2438 0.2438
  • The highest FTP of all the female athletes we are analysing at 309 watts, and corresponds with the highest watts per kg (5.24 w/kg).
  • Bike split in 2014 was over 5 minutes slower than that predicted for 2017.
  • Best Bike Split have predicted Ryfs bike split to be 1 minute and 2 seconds faster than TriRatings.

 

Heather Jackson

Jackson – Triathlon World

 

Weight (kg) 57
FTP (W) 290
FTP W/kg 5.11
Predicted Time 2017 TriRating 4:57:45
Predicted Time 2017 Best Bike Split 4:57:12
Bike Split 2014
Bike Split 2015 5:04:43
Bike Split 2016 5:00:31
Predicted Data for 2017 Best Bike Split to achieve TriRating
Avg. Speed (km/h) 36.304 36.304
Avg. Power 219.2 219.2
Normalized Power 222.92 222.92
Variability Index 1.02 1.02
Intensity Factor 0.77 0.77
Training Stress Score 293 293
Watts/Kg 3.87 3.87
Avg. Yaw 5.33 5.33
Avg. CdA 0.2598 0.2598
  • Bike split in 2015 was over 7 minutes slower than that predicted for 2017.
  • Best Bike Split have predicted Jackson’s bike split to be 33 seconds faster than TriRatings, the closest of any the athletes analysed.

 

Sarah Piampiano

Piampiano
Weight (kg) 54
FTP (W) 274
FTP W/kg 5.04
Predicted Time 2017 TriRating 5:03:13
Predicted Time 2017 Best Bike Split 5:05:50
Bike Split 2014
Bike Split 2015 5:02:28
Bike Split 2016 5:07:29
Predicted Data for 2017 Best Bike Split to achieve TriRating
Avg. Speed (km/h) 35.28 35.568
Avg. Speed (mph) 22.05
Avg. Power 207.73 211.81
Normalized Power 211.26 215.49
Variability Index 1.02 1.02
Intensity Factor 0.77 0.78
Training Stress Score 302 310
Watts/Kg 3.82 3.89
Avg. Yaw 5.42 5.37°
Avg. CdA 0.2649 0.2649

 

  • Bike split in 2015 was over 7 minutes slower than that predicted for 2017.
  • TriRating have predicted Piampiano’s bike split to be 2 minutes and 37 seconds faster than TriRatings, the closest of any the athletes analysed.

So there you go, a bit of a rundown on the predicted bike splits for the race this weekend. For many of the athletes the predicated times are close, with an even split between Best Bike Split and TriRating for the faster bike times. The interesting thing to consider is the difference in watts required to gain a little bit of time, and how this then effects their subsequent run split. Anyway happy viewing and we will see how many of the predicted times are proven true.

If you want to check out the Best Bike Split or TriRating please go to their websites:

www.bestbikesplit.com

www.trirating.com

 

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